Overview
- The government plans to reintroduce a constitutional amendment to advance 33% reservation for women and a delimitation Bill to expand the Lok Sabha during the Monsoon Session starting July 20, after the package failed in the Lok Sabha in April.
- BJP leaders are pressing a strategy of validating recent crossovers, courting regional parties such as the DMK and NCP (SP), and seeking abstentions to reduce the number of votes required for passage.
- Expected Rajya Sabha gains from July 24 bypolls in West Bengal would add three BJP MPs and improve Upper House arithmetic but would still leave the NDA short of the two‑thirds threshold needed for constitutional amendments.
- Aparjitha Sarangi’s JPC has softened a separate amendment’s punitive clause by replacing automatic removal with suspension and a sunset clause, and the government is using that concession as a confidence‑building step with opponents.
- If regional parties keep strict unity and full attendance they can block the measures, while any abstentions, validated defections, or further concessions would materially raise the government’s chance of passing the bills and could reshape seat distribution and funding for states that controlled population growth.