Overview
- CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten presented the findings on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, saying roughly 30 to 40 percent of the party — moderate and leaning Republicans — have largely pulled back their strong backing for President Trump.
- Enten reported that Trump’s net approval versus Vice President Kamala Harris among these moderates has dropped from about +69 in October 2024 to roughly +10 now, a 59-point fall.
- The collapse is steepest on the economy, which fell from about +80 to roughly +1–3 among moderates, a decline Enten identified as the main reason they are defecting.
- On discrete issues, Enten said moderates rate Trump about six points underwater on his handling of the Iran war and about 17 points underwater on inflation.
- Enten warned the shift could hurt Republican House candidates in suburban swing districts, and Trump publicly disputed the recent polls on Truth Social after national approval numbers showed him near 32–34 percent.