Overview
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology model projects a 57% chance of El Niño by May, rising to 99% by mid‑winter, while international ensembles place the odds near 60–70%.
- NOAA and the Bureau caution that February outlooks carry high uncertainty because long‑range models struggle across the seasonal transition.
- The tropical Pacific remains in a weak, fading La Niña, making the March–June period pivotal for any flip to El Niño conditions.
- BOM’s ACCESS‑S2 outlook favors below‑normal rainfall for much of Australia in April–June, with near‑term guidance also pointing to warmer than average days and nights.
- If El Niño develops, past events in Australia point to reduced winter and spring rainfall, more extreme hot days and higher fire danger, with global heat records more likely in the following year.