Overview
- Colorado State University, which issued its first outlook Thursday, projected 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes for 2026.
- ECMWF and NOAA analyses point to El Niño developing by early summer, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing the May–July odds near 61% and some studies warning it could strengthen into 2027.
- El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic, a crosswind that disrupts a storm’s core and often cuts down on formation and intensification.
- Sea temperatures send mixed signals, with the western tropical Atlantic running warmer than normal but cooler waters in the central and eastern Atlantic creating real uncertainty for how active the season becomes.
- Regional agencies are flagging location-specific risks, including higher flood potential in Argentina’s Litoral, a busier eastern Pacific with Mexico’s weather service expecting at least five landfalls, and a U.S. pattern that leans wetter in the South with more heat and drought in the West.