Overview
- The Met Office says El Niño is highly likely to form later this year and is likely to be a large event.
- New multi‑model ensembles point to a moderate‑to‑strong event, with some projections putting the chance of a super El Niño above 50% by late fall, though scientists caution forecasts remain shaky until after spring.
- Forecasters say a large El Niño would give 2027 global temperatures a temporary boost that could challenge records.
- Colorado State University’s early outlook calls for a quieter Atlantic hurricane season if El Niño develops because stronger upper‑level winds tend to tear storms apart, yet coastal residents are urged not to drop their guard.
- Regional risks are diverging as India’s weather service flags a below‑normal monsoon near 92% of average while UK effects remain hard to pin down, and New England experts expect a warmer, drier tilt.