Overview
- Major climate agencies report high odds of El Niño this year, with NOAA putting the chance near 80% and ECMWF ensemble runs favoring a strong event as the Pacific warms.
- German forecasters at DWD say signals for El Niño are clear, yet the final strength remains uncertain until ocean and atmosphere lock in late spring.
- El Niño occurs when trade winds weaken and a pulse of warm water slides east across the equatorial Pacific, which shifts jet streams and alters rain and heat patterns worldwide.
- In Germany, meteorologists expect a warm, stormy start to summer with more thunderstorms, and they caution that a cooler and wetter pattern could cut off the heat in August.
- Past strong El Niño events drove droughts, floods, crop losses, and disease outbreaks that hit tens of millions of people, raising the risk of higher food prices even in Europe.