Overview
- NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch with an 82% chance of onset in early summer 2026 and a 96% chance of lasting into winter 2026/27.
- Forecast suites from NOAA and ECMWF now favor a strong event and give roughly a 30% chance it reaches so‑called super strength.
- Ocean data show a large pool of subsurface heat in the equatorial Pacific, boosted by a rare sequence of Pacific cyclones that helped drive warm water east.
- Scientists explain that El Niño shifts tropical rain toward the central and eastern Pacific, raising flood risk in Peru and Ecuador and increasing drought risk in Australia and Southeast Asia.
- Experts expect higher global temperatures, with 2026 likely very warm and 2027 carrying high odds of a record year, while direct effects on Germany and much of Europe remain limited and uncertain.