Overview
- Global agencies, including the WMO, report strong model agreement that El Niño will likely emerge between May and July, with confidence expected to improve after the spring predictability barrier.
- NOAA and other experts flag a meaningful chance of a very strong or “super” event this year, while stressing that spring forecasts carry higher uncertainty.
- El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific that shifts jet streams and rain belts, often drying Asia and Australia and boosting rainfall in parts of the Americas.
- India is already in severe heat, the IMD projects a below-normal monsoon at about 92% of the long-term average, and analysts warn of hits to farm output, rural incomes, water supplies, and health, with women facing disproportionate burdens.
- Some Indian scientists say a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could partly offset El Niño’s drying in central and southern India, and agencies plan fresh updates in May as ocean–atmosphere coupling becomes clearer.