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4w ago

Models Point to a Strong 2026 El Niño as NOAA Urges Caution

Low spring forecast skill leaves the event’s strength uncertain.

People flock Baker Beach near the Golden Gate Bridge as heat advisory issued in San Francisco, California, on March 16.
People gather to watch the sunset at La Jolla's Windansea Beach during a winter heat wave on January 31, 2026 in San Diego, California.
IN SPACE - OCTOBER 8: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, is pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)

Overview

  • Fresh guidance from Europe’s ECMWF shows El Niño building by late summer, with many model runs pushing into “super” territory by fall and some reports citing roughly a 75% chance by October.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center keeps an El Niño watch in place with a 62% chance of emergence in June to August and only modest odds of a strong event later in the year.
  • A stronger El Niño would likely cut Atlantic hurricane activity by boosting high‑altitude wind shear, while raising cyclone risk in the eastern and central Pacific, and the impact will depend on how early the pattern locks in.
  • If a powerful event develops, the southern United States typically turns wetter in winter as the jet stream shifts south, the North trends milder, and global temperatures could challenge records in 2026 or 2027.
  • Forecasters stress the spring predictability barrier and are watching subsurface heat and bursts of west‑to‑east winds that could trigger the ocean‑atmosphere coupling needed for a strong or even “super” El Niño.