Overview
- Modern forecast models, reported 6 July, give roughly an 80 percent signal for a warmer‑than‑normal high summer in Germany and favour prolonged hot conditions during the Hundstage period.
- The most likely timing for the main heat peak is the end of July into the first days of August with isolated top temperatures plausibly reaching about 41–42°C while widespread 45°C extremes are considered unlikely.
- A statistically common rain phase is expected around 4–7 August, with both model output and the traditional 100‑year calendar indicating a break in the heat then.
- From about 12 August forecasts and the 100‑year calendar show a shift toward cooler, more changeable and unsettled weather with greater chance of showers and thunderstorms.
- The Hundstage are a fixed calendar window (23 July–23 August) named for the star Sirius and the 100‑year calendar is a centuries‑old, experience‑based forecast that currently aligns in timing with modern models, though regional variability means impacts will differ across Germany.