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Model-Pundit Split Defines 2026 RBC Canadian Open Preview

Disagreement between computer models and analysts could reshape betting markets, changing which players use the week to reach the U.S. Open.

Overview

  • The full-field RBC Canadian Open tees off Thursday at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley and serves as many players’ final tune-up and last-chance route to U.S. Open qualification.
  • Bookmakers list Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick as co-favorites in early odds, with Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark also near the top of the market.
  • SportsLine’s proprietary model ran 10,000 simulations and projects leaderboards that notably fade Sam Burns and elevate Collin Morikawa while identifying higher-value longshots, and the outlet frames those outputs as predictions rather than guarantees.
  • Forbes analyst Jeff Hartman takes a different view by naming Sam Burns his favorite and Aaron Rai a long-shot pick, highlighting a clear split between model-driven betting advice and individual pundit judgments.
  • Several top names are skipping the week to prepare for the U.S. Open, which thins the field and creates clearer value opportunities for players trying to build form or earn U.S. Open entry; the TPC Toronto North Course is a Par 70 at 7,389 yards that rewards accuracy off the tee.