Moana Presales Slump Raises Alarm at Disney

Weak early ticket tracking threatens a costly July release because the film’s large budget and a crowded summer slate raise Disney’s financial risk.

Overview

Tracking data highlighted by industry account @GlobalBoxOffice that surfaced Monday shows opening-week presales for the live-action Moana are far below internal projections.
The film is set to open on July 10, 2026, giving Disney less than a month to boost demand before Toy Story 5 and other summer releases begin to shape audience choices.
Industry estimates place Moana’s production costs above $250 million, which analysts say means it needs blockbuster-level grosses similar to Lilo & Stitch to break even.
Moana will face stiff competition for family audiences and premium screens from Toy Story 5 on June 19, Illumination’s Minions & Monsters on July 1, and Universal’s The Odyssey on July 17.
Disney is preparing intensified marketing and leaning on possible carryover from other tentpoles, but analysts warn the studio’s mixed record with live-action remakes makes recovery uncertain and could affect studio revenue and theater bookings.