Overview
- On June 11, 2026 the British Geological Survey published maps that combine soil volume-change data with long-term rainfall and temperature projections to identify where shrink–swell subsidence is most likely.
- Shrink–swell subsidence happens when clay soils expand in wet conditions and contract in dry spells, a cycle that can pull down house foundations and cause diagonal cracking, sticking doors, and sloping floors.
- The BGS projects exposure by 2070 that ranges from roughly 500,000 homes under strong emissions cuts to more than 1.8 million under medium/high emissions, with parts of London at especially high risk.
- Reporting links the new analysis to recent concrete impacts, including a sharp rise in subsidence-related insurance claims and local evacuations, and warns of falling property values, mortgage refusals, and costly engineering fixes.
- The BGS urges homeowners to get specialist advice before building work or altering trees and surfaces, and the analysis raises wider policy questions for planners, insurers, and lenders about who pays for adaptation.