Overview
- The peer‑reviewed Science paper published Aug. 27, 2026 reconstructs 1,000 years of eastern‑Pacific sea‑surface temperatures from modern and fossil Galápagos corals and finds ENSO variability is about 36–37% higher than the preindustrial millennium.
- Most of the increase occurred in the past roughly 40 years, with variability about 16% larger than the 20th century, a shift the authors say closely tracks rising global temperatures.
- The team compared the coral reconstruction with ensembles from 12 climate models and reports the observed amplification exceeds simulated natural forcing and internal variability, pointing to a human‑forced influence.
- Operational forecasts for the 2026–27 El Niño continue to show a very strong or potentially record‑setting event, and the study implies such an event could drive stronger droughts, floods, wildfires, coral bleaching and food‑security stress worldwide.
- Scientists broadly welcomed the new high‑resolution eastern‑Pacific proxy but also flagged questions about sampling, consistency with some instrumental records, and the exact physical mechanisms such as ocean stratification that may amplify El Niño under warming.