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Mid‑May PMIs Show Euro Zone Sliding into Contraction as Global Cost Pressures Rise

The surveys show the Middle East war is driving supply and energy shocks, lifting input inflation, raising firms' prices, weakening demand, complicating central bank choices.

People walk at the promenade by the river Rhine with the skyline in the background including the Rheinturm in Duesseldorf, Germany, May 13, 2024. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch
A member of staff works on the production line at Jaguar Land Rover’s factory in Solihull, Britain, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Phil Noble
A worker makes a metal filter plate inside an industrial manufacturing unit on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, July 23, 2024. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
Dark clouds hang over the financial district in Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2021.  REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

Overview

  • Mid‑May flash PMIs showed the euro zone private sector contracted with a composite reading of 47.5, signalling a likely 0.2% GDP decline in the second quarter and the fastest fall in activity in over two years.
  • France recorded the steepest drop in private‑sector activity in five‑and‑a‑half years with services at 42.9 and a composite of 43.5, and Germany posted a second month of contraction with a composite PMI near 48.6.
  • Across Europe and in Japan, input‑price inflation accelerated to multi‑year highs and firms reported higher fuel, transport and raw‑material costs that have led some companies to raise selling prices.
  • Japan kept expanding overall thanks to manufacturing, but its services sector stalled and selling‑price inflation hit near‑record rates, while India remained strong with a 58.1 composite PMI despite slower factory momentum.
  • Australia's private sector slipped back into contraction at a 47.8 composite reading, with new orders falling sharply, confidence at record lows and firms citing the Middle East conflict for supply delays and cost pressure.