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Middle Powers Forge New Coalitions as Great-Power Rifts Deepen

Experts highlight minilateral deals plus G20 bridge-building as the most workable tools to preserve cooperation.

Overview

  • Countries from Europe to Asia are stepping up coordination on trade, supply chains and security to hedge between Washington and Beijing, with Canada’s Mark Carney urging joint action at Davos.
  • The European Union is pressing ahead with free‑trade agreements with India, Mercosur and Australia, while Canada is fast‑tracking energy and mining projects and expanding export terminals to build economic autonomy.
  • Defense links are widening through an EU military financing program, the U.K.–ItalyJapan next‑generation fighter, AUKUS submarine plans, and European procurements such as Poland’s purchase of South Korean tanks alongside Baltic artillery and Norwegian long‑range missiles.
  • Analysts see pragmatic, issue‑focused groupings and G20 mediation roles as viable options to keep cooperation alive, set against strains from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s South China Sea assertiveness and U.S. tariff and institutional reversals.
  • Efforts face limits from clashing interests and reliance on U.S. power, reflected in NATO chief Mark Rutte’s warning on Europe’s defenses and examples such as India’s refusal to join sanctions on Russian oil.