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Middle East Energy Shock Pushes Inflation Up and Pakistan’s CPI Rises to 11.7%

Disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have driven fuel costs higher and forced central banks and markets to price tighter policy ahead.

Pedestrians and vehicles cross an intersection around Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Iran, Monday, June 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
People shop at an Olive Young store in Seoul, South Korea, August 7, 2025.   REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji
A woman walks at Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Iran, Monday, June 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
People walk at Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Iran, Monday, June 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Overview

  • Pakistan’s consumer price index rose to 11.7% year on year in May, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported Monday, the fastest pace in nearly two years.
  • Core inflation in urban Pakistan — measured as non-food, non-energy — climbed to 9.0% year on year, while transport and housing costs surged and hit the poorest households hardest.
  • South Korea’s CPI rose to 3.1% in May with petroleum products up about 24%, a jump the Bank of Korea says keeps the case for a near-term rate increase on the table.
  • Policymakers and markets are shifting away from easing: the State Bank of Pakistan raised its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.50% in April and CME FedWatch now shows at least one Fed hike priced by January 2027.
  • Analysts warn that sustained oil near $90 per barrel would lift inflation across other importers, widen fiscal and current account gaps, and could slow growth in India and other emerging markets.