Overview
- Multiple recent polls show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton virtually tied in the U.S. Senate race with single-digit differences inside standard margins of error.
- Emerson’s likely-voter survey finds Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46% while Mason-Dixon reports a similar Democratic edge in its latest snapshot.
- Polls disagree on the governor’s margin with Emerson showing Gov. Greg Abbott ahead about three points and Mason-Dixon reporting a larger roughly seven-point lead.
- Detailed breakouts show Talarico strong with women, younger voters, Black and Hispanic voters and urban areas while Paxton’s base is concentrated among Republicans, white voters, men and rural regions.
- Pollsters say voter enthusiasm has risen after the RNC midterm convention and analysts warn that turnout operations and regional turnout swings will likely determine both races on Election Day.