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Microsoft’s Valuation Hits Decade-Low Multiple as AI Growth Meets Record Spending

The company is plowing tens of billions into data centers to relieve Azure capacity constraints.

Overview

  • Shares are down about 28% from the July 2024 high to roughly $401, putting the stock near 22x forward earnings at a rare discount to the S&P 500.
  • Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue rose 17% to $81.3 billion, beating estimates, as Microsoft Cloud topped $50 billion and Azure grew roughly 39%.
  • Capital expenditures reached approximately $37.5 billion in the quarter, with management outlining roughly $100 billion or more to expand AI infrastructure.
  • Microsoft’s OpenAI exposure remains significant, including a $13 billion commitment and analyst estimates that its stake could exceed $200 billion after an $840 billion OpenAI valuation.
  • Copilot has about 15 million paid seats, and Microsoft 365 E7 at $99 per user per month is slated for May 1 to encourage broader adoption.