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Microsoft’s AI Strategy Hits a Crossroads as Analysts Flag Azure Bottlenecks and Copilot ‘Code Red’

The next earnings report will test whether the spending surge is starting to show up in growth.

Overview

  • BNP Paribas says Satya Nadella is leading a Copilot overhaul called “Code Red” to lift performance and improve the user experience.
  • Azure revenue grew about 38% last quarter, and banks say compute limits, including capacity used for Microsoft’s own AI work, kept growth from topping 40%.
  • Bank of America estimates Azure grew 37.5% last quarter and expects new AI infrastructure to help, though a clear growth beat may be needed to move the stock.
  • AI spending remains heavy, with BNP Paribas estimating roughly $120 billion in capex this fiscal year and Bank of America modeling $26.9 billion for the quarter, up 61% from a year ago.
  • Copilot has about 15 million paid seats, a small share of the 450 million Microsoft 365 base, and analysts cite stronger uptake, steadier Azure beats, and a path to slower capex growth as the main catalysts after a double‑digit stock slide this year.