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Microsoft’s $357 Billion One-Day Rout Exposes Jitters Over AI Spending and OpenAI Reliance

Newly highlighted OpenAI concentration alongside soaring data‑center outlays renewed doubts about near‑term payoffs.

Overview

  • Shares fell as much as 12% and closed down about 10% the day after the Jan. 28 report, erasing roughly $357 billion in value.
  • Microsoft beat on revenue and earnings, yet Azure grew about 38% in constant currency against higher whisper expectations and guidance pointed to 37%–38% growth.
  • Capital expenditures jumped to $37.5 billion, up about 66% year over year, with management citing AI capacity constraints that will take time to ease.
  • The company said roughly 45% of its $625 billion remaining performance obligations is tied to a single customer identified as OpenAI, with $7.6 billion recognized last quarter and a multiyear Azure compute commitment reported at up to $250 billion.
  • Copilot counts about 15 million paid users, roughly 3% of Microsoft 365 seats, and several analysts trimmed targets as the stock enters a prove‑it phase for AI monetization.