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Microsoft Pushes Into Proprietary AI as Shares Lag

Large Azure commitments, rising AI revenue, heavy data-center spending will shape Microsoft’s profits and investor returns.

Overview

  • Microsoft reported strong Q3 FY26 results that it confirmed on April 29, saying its AI business topped a $37 billion annual run rate while Azure grew about 40% last quarter.
  • The company signaled a strategic shift at Build 2026 to build its own models and allocate significant GPU capacity to internal teams to lower reliance on third-party large models.
  • Reports say a reworked OpenAI deal locks roughly $250 billion of multi-year Azure commitments and extends certain IP terms through 2032, supporting a large contracted revenue backlog.
  • Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligations nearly doubled to about $627 billion and Microsoft raised CapEx sharply for data centers and GPUs, which investors worry could pressure near-term margins.
  • Product moves include a redesigned 365 Copilot that loads twice as fast, yields roughly 10% faster responses on complex prompts and adds a Work IQ layer, but recent breaches of open-source Azure tools have prompted access restrictions and raised security concerns.