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Micron Says AI Memory Demand Will Exceed Supply Through 2026 as HBM4 Ships Ahead of Plan

Soaring DDR5 prices signal firmer pricing power for Micron.

Overview

  • At a Wolfe conference, Micron said demand across memory markets remains higher than industry supply and that conditions have strengthened since its last earnings update.
  • HBM4 is in high‑volume production with customer shipments underway, with calendar Q1 volumes ramping earlier than guided and 2026 HBM capacity already sold out.
  • Micron outlined capacity additions including a 1‑gamma DRAM ramp, the Idaho One fab targeted for mid‑2027, the Tongluo site closing expected in Q2 with supply late‑2027/2028, and a new Singapore NAND fab with first wafer in H2 2028.
  • Morgan Stanley raised its Micron price target to $450, citing a strong DRAM outlook, noting DDR5 spot prices are up about 30% year to date and roughly 130% above January contract levels with further increases expected.
  • Reports indicate Samsung is nearing Nvidia certification for next‑generation HBM4 and preparing earlier mass production, introducing potential competitive pressure for Micron.