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Micron Hits Massive Profits as AI Memory Shortage Puts Wednesday Earnings on Trial

Persistent high‑bandwidth memory shortages with large advance customer orders have driven outsized profits, making this week's results a key test of demand durability.

Overview

  • Micron posted fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion and net income of roughly $28.24 billion, a dramatic jump from $9.3 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.
  • Visible Alpha and Wall Street models project about $50.95 billion in revenue and roughly $31.6 in adjusted EPS when Micron reports after the market close Wednesday.
  • The surge is driven by demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers, with customers commonly reported to have committed around $22 billion in advance orders to secure supply.
  • Management says meaningful new capacity likely will not come online until 2028, a view that has supported steep valuation gains and raised price targets to the mid‑four‑digits from firms such as UBS and D.A. Davidson.
  • Investors face elevated near‑term volatility—options markets imply about a 7% swing—while longer‑term risks include the memory cycle turning as new fab capacity ramps and potential changes in buyback policy after CHIPS Act restrictions expire.