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14h ago

Michigan and Missouri Primaries Turn into a Litmus Test for Democrats on Israel

Huge pro‑Israel ad buys have put Democratic coalitions under pressure, threatening to shape the party’s 2028 primary fight.

Former Rep. Cori Bush canvasses a neighborhood in St. Louis, on July 18.
A Palestinian vendor pushes his bicycle past the destroyed buildings at the Al-Jalaa street in Gaza City, on July 24, following an Israeli strike.
Democratic candidate for US Senate Abdul El-Sayed, center, greets a campaign rally crowd alongside Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders, UAW President Shawn Fain and Rep. Rashida Tlaib greet the crowd after El-Sayed spoke, at the Detroit Opera House in Detroit, Michigan, on July 18.
Rep. Haley Stevens, a Democratic candidate for Michigan's US Senate seat, hosts a "Meet and Greet" campaign event at Michigan Conference-Teamsters in Detroit, Michigan, on July 24.

Overview

  • The August 4 nominating contests in Michigan and Missouri are being cast as high‑stakes tests of the party’s split over U.S. policy toward Israel and the handling of antisemitism concerns.
  • Pro‑Israel groups have poured large sums into the races, with AdImpact tracking nearly $30 million backing Haley Stevens and the United Democracy Project spending heavily to support Wesley Bell.
  • Establishment leaders and centrist groups have consolidated endorsements for Stevens and Bell while progressive surrogates such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez have rallied behind insurgents like Abdul El‑Sayed and Cori Bush.
  • The DNC panel’s approval to put Michigan early on the 2028 primary calendar has alarmed some Jewish and pro‑Israel activists who say the state could magnify intra‑party Israel disputes in the next presidential nominating fight.
  • A broader shift in public opinion since 2023, reflected in Gallup and Pew polling, has opened space for anti‑Israel candidates to win safe Democratic districts while centrists tend to prevail in more competitive areas, raising questions about turnout, coalition building, and general election prospects.