Overview
- Banco de México reported $61.79 billion in remittances for 2025, a 4.6% annual drop; December registered $5.32 billion, up 1.9% year over year but down 1.6% seasonally adjusted from November.
- Declines were widespread across 23 of 32 states, led by steep falls in Estado de México (~-20%), Mexico City (~-17%), Sinaloa (-16.6%), Sonora (-14.1%) and Tabasco (-13.5%).
- Analysts attribute the downturn to U.S. factors including tighter migration enforcement, a softer labor market, a roughly 10% dollar depreciation, and a 1% remittance tax that took effect in January.
- Roughly 4.4–4.5 million Mexican households rely on these transfers, and the stronger peso has cut purchasing power by more than 10% in 2025, with BBVA warning losses could exceed 15% if the exchange rate stays below 17.50 pesos per dollar.
- Outlook remains weak in the near term, with BBVA projecting further declines in 2026–2027; Mexico’s slide contrasts with an estimated 8% remittance increase across key Latin American countries, and flows remain overwhelmingly U.S.-sourced, concentrated in California and Texas.