Overview
- Mexico’s National Population Program 2026–2030, published in the federal gazette, projects that by 2034 people aged 60 and over will outnumber children under 12 and documents a 2023 fertility rate of 1.60, below the 2.1 replacement level.
- The plan notes uneven aging across states, with Mexico City crossing the threshold in 2019 and Chiapas not expected to do so until 2055, which signals very different local needs for care, housing and jobs.
- Policy steps in the program focus on information and prevention, including public campaigns, school materials, offline strategies for remote communities and specific targets to cut teen pregnancies by 2030.
- Survey data in the program show fewer young women intend to have children, with the share of women 15–29 who were not trying to conceive rising from 30% in 2018 to 41.3% in 2023, which narrows the window to benefit from today’s working‑age majority.
- Regional reporting adds that Argentina’s births fell 32% from 2016 to 2022 and average about 1.4 children per woman, while researchers link lower partner formation to smartphone‑driven shifts in social life and clinicians flag metabolic and environmental risks that can reduce fecundity.