Overview
- SMN and Conagua confirmed in mid‑July that parts of the northeast, east and Pacific south have entered the canícula after July rainfall records showed a clear drop in accumulations.
- Official data show a 7.9% rainfall surplus for January–June 2026 but an 8.7% decline in precipitation from July 1–15, signaling a rapid shift from a wetter first half of the year.
- Forecasts and agency advisories warn sustained high temperatures, with parts of Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and San Luis Potosí expected to regularly exceed 40°C.
- NOAA and meteorologists say a latent El Niño and strengthened mid‑level trade winds can block maritime moisture, raising the risk of more severe heat, drought and wildfires in affected areas.
- The canícula is a normal mid‑summer dry spell that varies by region, and its onset this year will test water management, crop planning and public‑health measures already set up after an unusually wet first half of 2026.