Overview
- Mexico’s Finance Ministry, which delivered the 2027 Pre-Criterios to both chambers on Thursday, opened the formal budget debate with a statutory early blueprint that guides the later full fiscal package.
- Hacienda projects 2027 GDP growth of 1.9% to 2.9%, a fiscal deficit near 3.0% of GDP, and public debt around 55% of GDP, with expected revenues of 8.8319 trillion pesos and net spending of 10.0239 trillion.
- The plan sketches large desired outlays for social programs in 2027, including 612,977.6 million pesos for health services, 547,523.2 million for the older adults’ pension, and 134,550.3 million for the Rita Cetina basic education scholarship.
- The framework shifts reliance away from oil as Hacienda foresees petroleum income dropping to about 910.9 billion pesos in 2027, while non‑oil revenues rise through stronger tax collection without new or higher taxes.
- The document assumes easier monetary policy with the policy rate at 6.3% by end‑2026 and 5.5% in 2027 and now moves to congressional commissions for review, where all figures remain preliminary and subject to negotiation.