Overview
- Journalistic analysis published June 7 showed Mexico’s broad public debt rose 12.4% from October 2024 to Q1 2026 while nominal GDP rose 4.6%, implying debt grew about 1.7 times faster over that period.
- The Treasury (SHCP) rebutted those findings on June 8 by using seasonally adjusted nominal GDP, which it says rose 5.9% over a comparable span and points to an April SHRFSP reading near 50% of GDP.
- Hacienda warns that peso‑denominated totals can shift purely from exchange‑rate valuation of foreign currency debt and says the debt profile favors peso, fixed‑rate, long‑maturity instruments to limit risk.
- Independent analysts say the debt‑to‑GDP ratio alone is not decisive and flag falling public physical investment—about an 18.4% drop through April—as a government tool that reduces the ratio but may harm long‑term growth.
- Watch the cost of financing and the primary balance because the 2026 budget includes large planned interest payments and any sustained cuts to investment could weaken future revenue and fiscal space for households and public services.