Overview
- INEGI data show private consumption rose 1.2% month‑on‑month in March and 3.1% year‑on‑year, reflecting the first monthly gain after two months of declines.
- Gross fixed capital formation increased 0.4% from February in March but remained 3.1% below March 2025, extending a stretch of annual investment contractions.
- The consumption uptick was concentrated in imported goods, and the investment rise was driven by machinery and equipment, with machinery imports up about 3.3% month‑on‑month.
- Underlying domestic signals stayed weak in March, as consumer confidence fell, ENOE recorded a net loss of 116,016 jobs, remittances rose in dollars but fell in peso value, and formal wages showed modest real gains.
- Analysts warn that the T‑MEC review, high informality and a pattern of FDI driven by reinvested earnings rather than new projects make sustained investment and job growth uncertain, which could slow longer‑term capacity gains.