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Mexico Inflation Rebounds to 4.02% in February on Produce Spike

Food-price shocks lifted the rate beyond Banxico’s 2–4% target band, sharpening focus on the March 26 interest-rate decision.

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Overview

  • Consumer prices rose 0.50% from January, taking the annual rate to its highest level since June 2025, according to Inegi.
  • Fruits and vegetables jumped 4.94% on the month, the biggest February rise since 1992, with lemon up 25.97%, tomato 22.57%, and potatoes and tubers 20.86%.
  • The non-core component accelerated on an annual basis to 2.44% from 1.39% in January, while core inflation rose 0.46% on the month and stood at 4.5% year over year.
  • The reading exceeded market expectations, with a Banamex survey pointing to 3.94%–3.96% year-over-year inflation.
  • Analysts flagged risks that inflation could stay above 4% through 2026 and split on policy prospects, with some urging caution on cuts and others, like Valmex’s Gerónimo Ugarte, seeing room to resume easing on March 26.