Overview
- INEGI's mid‑June report showed annual headline inflation at 3.55%, the sixth straight monthly decline, driven by moderation in some non‑core items.
- Despite the overall slide, the fruits and vegetables subindex rose 13.69% through May, with jitomate up about 106% and potato and chile poblano also recording large accumulated gains.
- Early June World Cup travel pushed air fares up 13.75% and hotel rates up 8.73% in biweekly measures, giving tourism‑related services greater weight in the CPI.
- Weekly and biweekly data in mid‑June showed sharp short‑term drops for some items, including a near 24% weekly fall in jitomate, but wholesale and retail channels still show wide price dispersion.
- Analysts and meteorological agencies warn a developing El Niño could cut agricultural output and add roughly 0.5 percentage points to 2026 inflation, which would raise costs for households and alter buying habits.