Mexico Economic Activity Falls 0.2% in November, Early INEGI Gauge Shows

Overview

• INEGI’s timely IOAE estimate points to a 0.2% month‑over‑month decline in November after a brief October uptick.
• Secondary activities are estimated down 0.3% and tertiary activities down 0.1% on the month, with overall activity flat year over year.
• Private surveys from Banxico and Citi now put 2025 GDP near 0.39–0.40%, while Banco Base projects roughly 0.44% if recent trends persist.
• The IOAE indicates five monthly pullbacks in 2025—March, May, July, September, and November—underscoring intermittent setbacks through the year.
• Construction showed a 0.1% monthly rise in October but remained 14% below a year earlier, and analysts cite policy uncertainty, trade renegotiation risks, and heavy natural‑gas dependence as ongoing drags.