Overview
- The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas warned on Tuesday and Wednesday that a fiscal deficit headed toward about 5% of GDP could push public debt close to 60% of GDP by the end of 2026.
- Official Treasury data through May show weaker revenues and higher spending, leaving a year‑to‑date negative budget balance of 418,750 million pesos that has added pressure on financing needs.
- Standard & Poor’s changed Mexico’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, signaling a greater risk that the country could lose investment‑grade status if fiscal trends do not improve.
- Analysts attribute a large share of the deterioration to state oil company Pemex, which generated roughly $100 billion of cumulative operating losses from 2019 through Q1 2026, and to rising fuel‑subsidy costs that could total about 220 billion pesos if high oil prices persist.
- The IMEF is urging a fiscal reform focused on stricter spending discipline, mandatory reviews of major projects and operational changes at Pemex to return to a primary surplus and avoid market fallout such as higher interest rates and bond outflows.