Overview
- Industry data project more than 16,000 cargo thefts in 2025 with about 68% involving violence and annual losses exceeding 7 billion pesos.
- Official SESNSP/FGR investigations fell 16.9% year over year in January–September (8,638 vs. 10,445), yet October saw increases reported by industry groups at federal (+7%), common jurisdiction (+15%) and national (+11%) levels.
- Guanajuato remains a national hotspot, accounting for 7.3% of cases from January to October, with over half of state incidents on the Querétaro–León (MEX‑45D) and Querétaro–San Luis Potosí (MEX‑57D) corridors.
- The holiday Guadalupe–Reyes period adds near-term risk as freight and travel surge, with routes such as México–Querétaro, México–Puebla, Arco Norte and the Circuito Exterior Mexiquense repeatedly flagged and risk windows differing for truckers and travelers.
- Recovery of stolen heavy vehicles has fallen to roughly 59–60%, drivers have staged road blockades over violence and alleged extortion, and industry groups report economic losses reaching up to 15 million pesos per day on critical routes.