Overview
- The Mexican peso strengthened through the first week of September and was trading around MXN 16.88–16.92 on Monday, closing the prior week with a 0.85% gain versus the dollar.
- Market participants say comments by NY Fed president John Williams and Fed governor Christopher Waller lowered the probability of a September Fed rate increase to about 59%, which weakened the dollar and helped emerging‑market currencies.
- Banco de México's official FIX reference remained higher than spot rates, with the published FIX near MXN 17.04 while market quotes opened around MXN 16.89, reflecting technical and timing differences in official and market measures.
- In Argentina, the BCRA's August REM revised median forecasts to about ARS 1,530 for September and ARS 1,630 for year‑end, and market quotes on Monday showed Banco Nación retail at ARS 1,530, the wholesale market near ARS 1,508–1,512, and the informal blue around ARS 1,540.
- Low liquidity because of the U.S. Labor Day holiday narrowed intraday ranges and heightened sensitivity to single data points, leaving traders focused on upcoming U.S. inflation releases and on oil and geopolitical risks that could push currencies and inflation expectations.