Overview
- The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves open a three-game series at Citi Field on Monday with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
- The Mets plan to start rookie left-hander Zac Thornton (1-1, 1.93 ERA) while the Braves will send Martín Pérez (6-6, 3.38 ERA) to the mound.
- Betting markets differ: some sportsbooks list the Braves as a narrow moneyline favorite while Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives the Mets roughly a 53–54% chance to win.
- Injuries to key players on both clubs, including Juan Soto (Mets) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) on the 10-day IL, and the teams’ season ERAs (Braves 3.65, Mets 4.20) help explain the divided market pricing.
- For bettors and fans the main things to watch are Thornton’s early-inning control, Pérez’s history pitching well at Citi Field, and pregame line moves because odds and rosters could change before first pitch.