Overview
- On Tuesday, Panama and El Salvador declared states of emergency or maximum alert as drought, heat and crop losses intensified and the Panama Canal Authority announced staged cuts to daily transits beginning September 3.
- The Met Office, NOAA and other agencies report multiple models and new metrics such as NOAA’s RONI point to a high probability that El Niño will strengthen through late 2026 into 2027 and could be exceptionally strong.
- Scientists warn that long‑range forecasts for Europe remain uncertain and meteorological authorities have refuted viral claims that El Niño will cause an extreme cold winter across the continent.
- Experts say a strong El Niño layered on top of human‑driven warming increases the likelihood that 2027 will rank among the hottest years on record and will amplify extremes such as droughts and heavy rains in different regions.
- El Niño is the warm phase of the Pacific ENSO cycle that shifts ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation, creating 'teleconnections' that can drive local humanitarian, agricultural and trade impacts worldwide.