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Meta Pullback Deepens as Wall Street Reassesses AI Spending and $9 Trillion Payout Goal

The next test arrives with the April 29 earnings report.

Overview

  • Meta shares are down roughly 14% this year and about 28% below late‑2025 highs as investors question the near‑term payoff from heavy AI investment and fresh regulatory risks.
  • Management guided 2026 expenses to $162–$169 billion and capital spending to $115–$135 billion to build data centers and computing power for AI, a scale analysts say could squeeze free cash flow through 2027.
  • Analyst sentiment has cooled, with Morgan Stanley cutting its price target while keeping an Overweight rating and Erste Group downgrading the stock to Hold on April 2 over investment pressure.
  • A reported executive incentive links a $9 trillion market value by 2031 to a $3,727 share price, a goal that stands far above most current analyst targets.
  • Traders are watching a technical range, with support near $520 and resistance around $673, as the April 29 report approaches with estimates near $6.63 in earnings per share on $55.4 billion in revenue.