Overview
- The Met Office said on Friday that a developing El Niño now looks likely to be the strongest in living memory, with forecasts showing equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures rising above 3°C compared with typical long-term averages.
- Scientists say the extra heat released from the ocean would raise global average temperatures and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record.
- UK forecasters link the event to an increased chance of a wetter, stormier autumn and early winter even though short August rainfall has not ended the summer drought and reservoirs and groundwater may stay low into next year.
- Experts warn the pattern can cut monsoon rains and worsen droughts in parts of South Asia, Australia, southern Africa and South America, disrupt shipping and supply chains, and push up food prices with some analysts forecasting large price rises.
- Multiple forecast centres and model aggregates now converge on very high odds of a very strong El Niño that could peak in November–December, but scientists note model spread and regional variability leave local outcomes uncertain.