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Met Office Rolls Out Major Forecast Upgrade, Extends Outlook to 10 Days

Running on a new Microsoft supercomputer, the system promises sharper guidance on cloud, fog, rainfall to support aviation, energy planning, earlier warnings.

Overview

  • The first upgrade on the Microsoft‑supplied system delivers more accurate estimates of cloud cover and cloud height, giving airports such as Heathrow clearer low‑cloud and fog guidance.
  • Revised cloud microphysics now capture light drizzle and produce more realistic rainfall intensities after previous models often missed weak precipitation.
  • A long‑standing winter cold bias has been reduced, supporting decisions on road gritting, aircraft de‑icing and energy demand management.
  • Global severe‑weather warning lead times increase from seven to 10 days, enabling earlier preparedness for storms and other hazards.
  • Met Office scientists describe the release as the biggest step in years, with a follow‑on upgrade in about a year planned to add AI that augments physics‑based forecasting.