Overview
- UK Met Office projects a 2026 global average about 1.46°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, placing it among the four hottest years on record.
- The forecast range is 1.34–1.58°C, meaning another temporary breach of 1.5°C is possible but not assured.
- Met Office scientists say the last three years likely topped 1.4°C, setting up 2026 to extend this run to four consecutive years.
- EU Copernicus data show January–November 2025 averaged about 1.48°C above pre‑industrial levels, making 2025 virtually certain to finish as the second‑ or third‑warmest year.
- Researchers attribute the sustained heat to fossil‑fuel emissions and record CO2 levels, as UN analyses warn current policies imply roughly 2.8°C of warming by 2100, or about 2.3–2.5°C if all pledges are met.