Overview
- Argentina beat England 2-1 in the semi-final with Lionel Messi providing the two late assists that set up goals by Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez.
- Messi and Kylian Mbappé are tied on eight goals each with one match remaining, but Messi leads the tiebreak on assists with four contributions.
- FIFA’s Golden Boot rules award the prize first by assists then by fewest minutes played and finally as a shared award if still tied, which currently favors Messi.
- Bookmakers including William Hill, Sky Bet and Betfair shortened Messi’s odds for the Ballon d’Or and top-scorer awards and Kalshi’s prediction market shows Messi with the higher probability.
- Mbappé can still change the outcome by adding goals in France’s third-place match and Messi could further cement legacy if Argentina wins the final against Spain.