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yesterday

Merz Faces Leadership Test as AfD Surges in Two State Elections

Poor results for the CDU could sharpen internal pressure on the chancellor while Germany’s constitution and thin coalition math would complicate any swift change of government.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives for the Cabinet meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Top candidate Ulrich Siegmund and party leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, speak to party members in front of a reading "it starts here" at an election party of the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) after the Saxony-Anhalt state elections in Magdeburg, eastern Germany, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attends a press conference after a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in Berlin, Germany, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Berlin lead candidates from top left: Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers, Steffen Krach, Kristin Brinker and Werner Graf

Overview

  • Chancellor Friedrich Merz has canceled a planned UN trip and scheduled a CDU leadership meeting to coincide with state exit polls so he can gauge party support and respond quickly to the results.
  • The far-right Alternative for Germany extended momentum from its near-majority win in Saxony-Anhalt and is expected to make strong gains in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, with polls showing the CDU at risk of falling below the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
  • Recent polls show Merz’s personal approval around the low teens and the CDU/CSU at historic lows while the AfD leads nationally, deepening concern in the conservative bloc about electoral prospects and strategy.
  • Eight CDU state premiers issued a public call for stability, but party figures still discuss replacement scenarios without a clear successor and face the hurdle that German law requires a constructive parliamentary majority to remove a chancellor.
  • How voters cast ballots this weekend will shape whether Merz can press on with economic and social reforms, whether the coalition holds steady, and whether internal CDU pressure for change intensifies or eases.