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Merck Beats Q4 Forecasts as 2026 Guidance Trails Estimates on Patent Losses

Management cites generic erosion plus pricing pressures as key drags.

Overview

  • Adjusted fourth‑quarter earnings were $2.04 per share on revenue of $16.4 billion, topping LSEG estimates for both metrics with sales up 5% year over year.
  • For 2026, Merck projected $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $5.00 to $5.15, a range that includes a roughly $9 billion charge tied to the Cidara acquisition.
  • CEO Rob Davis said legacy products losing exclusivity, including Januvia, Janumet and Bridion, will underperform Street models, with additional pressure from lower demand for COVID pill Lagevrio.
  • Keytruda generated $8.37 billion in Q4 and $31.7 billion for 2025, Winrevair climbed to $467 million in the quarter, and Gardasil fell 34% to $1.03 billion as shipments to China remain halted.
  • Merck is targeting $3 billion in cost reductions through 2027 and integrating recent deals for Cidara and Verona, with guidance also factoring in Medicare pricing on Januvia and U.S. vaccine‑schedule changes reported by the company.