Overview
- The Earth's Future study led by University College London's Eloise Marais projects megaconstellation launches could account for about 42% of the space sector's climate impact by 2029.
- Soot from rocket burns and reentering debris collects high in the atmosphere and absorbs sunlight, which cuts the light that reaches the ground.
- Reduced sunlight at the surface can hinder photosynthesis, lower crop yields, and shift rainfall patterns.
- Each unit of this upper-atmosphere pollution has an estimated effect about 540 times stronger than the same pollution released at ground level.
- The authors say their modeling is conservative because they based it on 2020–2022 launch rates that have since been exceeded.