Overview
- The Social Security COLA for 2027 will be set by the average change in the CPI‑W over a three‑month measurement window that begins now, so inflation readings through September will determine next January’s raise.
- Independent forecasters vary widely, with some estimates near 3.8% and others as high as about 4.7%, reflecting different responses to recent inflation data.
- The CPI‑W used to calculate COLAs tracks urban wage earners and clerical workers, so it underweights expenses such as health care and housing that make COLAs feel smaller to many retirees.
- Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security checks, and projected increases in those premiums can erase much or all of a COLA boost for beneficiaries.
- A separate policy decision from President Trump could mechanically raise next year’s COLA but would increase long‑term pressure on Social Security’s finances, leaving a tradeoff between a larger near‑term raise and program solvency.