Mbappé Moves To Front Of Ballon d’Or And Golden Ball Markets

Bookmakers shifted odds after World Cup semifinal displays, elevating Kylian Mbappé above Lionel Messi and making season-long form a key tie-breaker for voters.

Overview

Betting markets updated on Monday, July 13, 2026, with bet365 listing Mbappé as the favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or and FanDuel placing him top for the World Cup Golden Ball.
Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi each entered the semifinals with eight tournament goals, and bookmakers noted Mbappé had one more assist than Messi.
Strong club-season campaigns keep other contenders in play: Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembélé, Jude Bellingham, Michael Olise and Lamine Yamal all retained meaningful odds because of their 2025–26 records.
The Ballon d’Or’s 2022 shift to season-based voting means standout World Cup performances now carry extra weight when markets and voters assess the 2025–26 campaign.
What to watch next: further World Cup matches could materially change both Golden Ball and Ballon d’Or betting; a deep run or a tournament win for France would strengthen Mbappé’s case while an Argentina title would similarly boost Messi’s chances.