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May Jobs Surprise Masks Deeper Weakness in U.S. Labor Market

Strong headline hiring masks persistent underutilization, slowing wages, market declines, reduced odds of near-term Fed cuts.

Overview

  • Employers added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, and BLS revisions boosted March–April totals by a combined 93,000, raising the recent baseline for hiring.
  • The official unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent while the broader U-6 measure stood at 8.1 percent, showing many workers remain marginally attached or involuntarily part time.
  • About 2 million people had been jobless 27 weeks or more in May, a rise of roughly 524,000 year over year that signals longer spells out of work for many Americans.
  • Nominal wage growth slowed to roughly 3.4 percent year over year, which, with inflation near recent multi‑percent levels, cuts into real incomes and household buying power.
  • Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality, health care and local government while financial activities shed jobs, and markets fell after the report as investors pared back expectations for early Fed rate cuts.